2009 Economic Recovery?

There are very early signs that the economy is at least slightly on the mend. I think Bernake's " the recession is over" comments are very early in their optimism but I understand that he has to say things of that nature to a certain degree. I want to discuss a few signposts that may give us some insight on where the economy in general and the housing market in particular are headed. I believe that the economy won't be in full recovery until the housing market at least stops the bleeding it has suffered in the last few years.



1. US existing homes for sale- Sales for existing homes have increased in the last few months and correspondingly the inventory of home on the market have dropped the last few months.

NOTE- I believe this to be a short term improvement as banks are holding high levels of homes, foreclosures have been delayed and many ARMS are coming due in the next two years. The local DC housing market will be stronger than the national average and certainly better than places like Florida which may take almost a decade to recover from the losses of the past few years.



2.US leading economic indicators- It appears as if this index hit the floor six months ago and has seen substantial improvement. I still think while headed in the right direction that the recovery is very fragile and any number of events could disrupt this progress.



3. Consumer sentiment- This index measures consumer confidence basically.

It's at it's highest point since the Lehman brothers collapse last September. The 2001 recession had a higher number but that one pales compared to the current economic outlook.



I believe that we still have a ways to go but as usual the DC area will weather the storm better than other parts of the country. Still the pain we fell here in DC is real and not quite over yet but the end of the beginning I believe is here. Please let me know if you have any questions how this affects the housing market and I will be happy to help.



Thanks,